Shutdown increasingly seen as tone sharpens

Wednesday, September 18, 2013
By Paul Martin

Marketwatch.com
September 18, 2013

Analysts were ratcheting up their expectations of a government shutdown on Oct. 1 on Wednesday as House Republicans and the White House geared for a clash.

Stan Collender, the Washington budget analyst, says that a shutdown may be Speaker John Boehner‘s “only way out,” who notes that the only discussions that seem to be taking place are between the two main factions in the House GOP.

Chris Krueger of Guggenheim Securities is putting shutdown odds at 40% — up from 1 in 3 previously — and admits the 60% probability that there won’t be is based on “blind faith.” Krueger notes that stocks in the healthcare, tourism and defense sectors have the most negative risk from a shutdown, while Social Security and other entitlement programs would continue.

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