Will Nine New Hispanics for Every One New “White” in Texas End GOP Presidential Chances?

Saturday, June 22, 2019
By Paul Martin

by Selwyn Duke
Friday, 21 June 2019

Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just predicted that the national GOP is headed for the “waste bin of history” because our whole country is becoming like his Golden State. Now come new census estimates that may prove him a prophet: Texas, a must-win state for Republicans in presidential elections, is experiencing demographic change that will eventually turn it left.

Non-Hispanic whites are currently still a plurality in Texas. But this will soon change owing to, among other demographic phenomena, the state having gained nine new Hispanics for every one new non-Hispanic white in 2018. As the Texas Tribune reports:

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.

The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year. Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010. The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time period.

Asian-descent Texans’ population has actually increased the most percentagewise — 49 percent since 2010. Other major groups’ percentage increases since that year are Hispanics, 20; blacks, 19; and whites, 4.

This is significant not just because it perhaps means a more interesting panoply of restaurants, but because racial/ethnic identification strongly correlates with voting patterns. While Republicans derive approximately 90 percent of their votes from non-Hispanic whites — a group whose population share is shrinking nationwide — the “minority” groups in question cast ballots for Democrats by about 70 to 90 percent margins.

This demographic change is particularly impactful in regard to Texas because it is a GOP must-win in presidential contests. Consider: The Democrats already have as sure wins three of the five states offering the most electoral votes: California, 55; New York, 29; and Illinois, 20. Add to that 104 total other sure-win states, and the Democrats have well more than half the number necessary, which is 270, to win presidential elections.

Moreover, add a decent percentage of Democrat-leaning states, and you’ll know why it has recently been said that the Republicans have “a narrow path to the White House.” Now, remove Texas from the GOP column, and, well, the Grand Old Party will be the Grand Dead Party.

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