There Is A Lot Of Financial Pain Coming For The United States Of America
By: Avi Gilburt
GoldSeek.com
Thursday, 24 May 2018
For those of you that have followed me through the years, you would know that I utilize Elliott Wave analysis to track the markets I follow within the context of both their smaller and larger cycles. And, to that end, you would know that I am neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. Rather, I see the market as it is, and not as I believe it should be.
For example, when everyone was getting very bullish in late 2015, I warned that we were setting up for a drop from the 2100 region back down to the 1800 region. Yet, I also warned that investors should not get too bearish, since that pullback will set the market up for a multi-year rally pointing to 2600+ in the SPX.
If you remember back in early 2016, most analysis you were likely reading was preparing you for the inevitable market crash that everyone seemed to be certain was just around the corner. But, our Elliott Wave analysis put the market in appropriate context, and told us that we likely had several more years to come before the bull market which began in 2009 will likely end. I mean, have you ever experienced a market crash which was expected by the masses? Markets just don’t work that way.
As Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, noted regarding those utilizing “fundamental” analysis to identify when a market swoon will occur:
The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?
The Rest…HERE
