One of BofA’s “Imminent Market Crash” Indicators Was Just Triggered

Friday, January 26, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/26/2018

Early last month, we showed that one of Bank of America’s “guaranteed bear market” indicators, namely the three-month earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) which since 1988 has had a 100% hit rate of predicting upcoming bear markets, was just triggered. As Bank of America explained at the time, “since 1986, a bear market has followed each time that the ERR rule has been triggered.”

The only weakness of that particular indicator is that while a bear market always followed, the timing was unclear and the upcoming bear could arrive as late as two years after the trigger hit.

Well, fast forward to today when overnight another proprietary “guaranteed bear market” indicator created by the Bank of America quants was just triggered.

As we explained earlier today, as part of the unprecedented, historic rush to dump cash and buy any stocks that one can find, BofA’s “Bull & Bear indicator” surged to 7.9 – effectively 8 – a level that is indicative of broad market euphoria, and the highest it has been since March of 2013, or nearly 5 years ago.

There is another, far more important, reason why the triggering of the Bull and Bear Indicator is a remarkable event: according to Bank of America back-tests, not only does this particular indicator also have a 100% hit rate once triggered…

The Rest…HERE

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