“Merkel Will Have To Go”: Bill Blain On What’s Next For The Germans

Monday, November 20, 2017
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
Nov 20, 2017

“When you turn an election into a three-ring circus, there is the possibility the dancing bear will win..”

After Sunday night’s shocking failure by Merkel to from a government (triggered by the Free Democrats walking out due to irreconcilable differences on refugee policy, energy policy and tax policy) the FT was quick to conclude that “Merkel faces worst political crisis of her career.” And while Merkel is certainly in hot water, a more appropriate question is what’s next for Germany.

According to UBS – which has a clear interest in preserving the calm – there are four possible scenarios:

First, Chancellor Merkel could try to re-engage with the FDP and bring it back to the table and start coalition talks.
Second, the CDU/CSU could try to approach the SPD to form a grand coalition, which would have an absolute majority. However, the SPD has repeatedly mentioned (again last night) that it is not willing to go for this option and prefers to be in opposition.
If these two options do not work (which would be the first time in post-war Germany), either a minority government (Chancellor Merkel dismissed this option on election night) or new elections could follow.
The procedure for new elections, however, involves several steps, as outlined below.

The current (grand coalition) government remains in place until a new government is formed, i.e. until parliament votes on a candidate for chancellorship proposed by the Federal President (for which there is no time limit). If no workable coalition can be found, the way towards new elections involves many steps as reported in the press. The Federal President Steinmeier must propose a candidate for chancellorship (normally, this is the candidate put forth by a majority coalition, but he is free to choose others) and parliament would vote on this candidate. If the Federal President’s candidate does not obtain an absolute majority (which has never happened before in post-war Germany), parliament has 14 days to propose and vote on a candidate in a second round. If in this second round of voting no candidate obtains an absolute majority, there is a third round of voting where a candidate can be voted as chancellor with only a relative majority. If a candidate is voted with only a relative majority, the Federal President can either appoint the candidate as chancellor (implying a minority government) or dissolve parliament. In the latter case, new elections have to take place 60 days after parliament has been dissolved. At this stage, however, it is unclear whether new elections would produce a significantly different result compared to the last election.

The Rest…HERE

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