War between Iran & Saudi Arabia could send oil to $300 per barrel & impoverish the world
RT.com
15 Nov, 2017
An armed conflict between Riyadh and Tehran would have a major impact on oil markets and the global economy. RT asked experts what a war between the two Middle East superpowers would mean for crude prices.
If a conflict happens, oil prices could increase 500 percent.
“Energy prices will seriously depend on the severity of the conflict. Let’s remember the unrecognized Iraqi Kurdistan, which in a state of continuous war exported about 550,000 barrels per day through Turkey. In this connection, we can expect a panic rise in oil price to $150-$200 on the first day of the conflict… If Saudis and Iran attack each other’s oil facilities, crude prices can skyrocket to $300,” Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst at the eToro social network for investors told RT.
Ivan Karyakin, an investment analyst at Global FX, points out that the area of possible conflict pumps a third of global oil. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar together produce about 28 million barrels per day, which is slightly less than 30 percent of global production; prices will go up immediately to $150-180 per barrel, he said.
“Then everything will depend on the duration of the conflict. The world market will survive two or three days of the conflict. If the conflict lasts a week, then prices will rise to $200 or higher, and this will have long-term consequences, as stockpiles will decrease,” Karyakin said.
The analyst insists a war between Riyadh and Tehran is unlikely, as it’s not in the interests of Russia and China.“Russia is a partner of many conflicting countries in the Middle East. Largest oil importer China, which carries the greatest risks in the event of a rise in oil prices, will use all its influence on Iran and the US to prevent a conflict,” he said.
A war in the Middle East will be very unprofitable for importers, according to Ivan Kapustiansky, Forex Optimum analyst. “In the event of war, markets may lose about 20 percent of the world supply. First of all, of course, the largest importers will be affected. These include the US, China, Japan, as well as the eurozone, in fact, the main locomotives of the world economy,” he said.
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