The Fed Has Now Set The Stage For An ‘Ides Of March’ Moment…(If It’s Not In Your Hands, You Don’t Own It!!)
Via Mark St.Cyr,
ZeroHedge.com
Mar 1, 2017
Whether or not one agrees that the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise rates again at its upcoming meeting this March, one thing is certain: The Fed has done everything shy of setting its hair-on-fire to leave little doubt that they are seriously considering it.
As of this past Friday the consensus (or odds) for such a possibility stood in the high 30’s signaling little to no chance. On Monday those odds started to nudge up ever so slightly, yet, by late Tuesday those odds were pushing past the 70’s and heading for 80. Guess what happened next?
We’re now sitting as of this writing at an 82% expectancy rate for the odds of another rate hike in about two weeks time. And the “markets” are setting ever higher records as the day progresses. It would appear the “market” either A: doesn’t believe the Fed. Or, B: no longer cares. I believe it’s A, and that’s a very big problem.
Just yesterday I wrote an article stating that the time to watch China ever-the-closer was right now in light of recent Fed. pile on for March “live” considerations. One of the references I used was the addition of two more Fed. presidents taking to the airwaves to project the idea that March indeed was, and should be, taken as “live.”
I hadn’t but hit the publish button when two additional Fed. presidents wade into the fray, Here’s a recap. To wit:
Fed’s Dudley (Voter, Dove) said the case for rate hikes is more compelling.
Fed’s Kaplan (Voter, Neutral) said the rate path is more important than timing of the next hike.
Fed’s Williams (Non-Voter, Hawk) sees a March hike getting serious consideration. Williams also added he still is comfortable with 3 hikes this year and does not see need to delay rate hike.
Fed’s Bullard (Non-Voter, Dove) stated that the Fed has essentially reached its dual mandate and should allow the balance sheet to normalize naturally. Bullard also added that the policy rate can stay relatively low over the horizon and that he still expects 2% growth, thus no reason to be aggressive on rate hikes
Just to reiterate – that’s yesterday. Do you think there’s some messaging to be taken here? Especially right before the President’s first budget ideas speech before congress? Or is that all “tin-foiled cap wearing” “conspiracy theory” talk?
The Rest…HERE
