The Stock Market Has Predicted The Outcome Of Presidential Elections With 86 Percent Accuracy

Wednesday, August 3, 2016
By Paul Martin

By Michael Snyder
EndOfTheAmericanDream.com
August 2nd, 2016

If you want Donald Trump to win the election, then you should be rooting for a stock market crash between now and November. As you will see below, if stocks go up during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always keeps the White House. But if stocks go down during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always loses. Earlier today, Trump warned Americans to get out of the stock market, and if his warning turns out to be correct it will likely benefit him politically as well. When the general population believes that things are going well, Americans tend to stick with current leadership, but when the general population believes that we have hit rocky times they are usually ready for a change.

It turns out that this very strong correlation between the direction of the stock market and the outcomes of presidential elections goes all the way back to before the days of the Great Depression. The following comes from Zero Hedge…

Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

The last time this correlation failed was back in 1980, and at that time Americans were feeling depressed about the country for other reasons. Overall, the stock market has predicted the outcome of presidential elections with 86 percent accuracy, and that is way too strong of a correlation to ignore. Just consider the gains or losses that we have seen for the S&P 500 during the last three months prior to each election since 1928 and the outcomes of those elections…

The Rest…HERE

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