Gold Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs
By: Hubert Moolman
GoldSeek.com
Tuesday, 2 August 2016
During the 70s bull market, gold went from $35 to $195 in the first phase. That was a 458% increase. The first phase of the current bull market took gold from $252 to $1920, which made for a 661% increase.
At first glance, it would appear that the current bull market outperformed the 70s one. However, it only took about five years (1970 to 1975) to get the 458% increase, compared to the roughly ten years and five months it took to get the 661% increase. If the performance of the current bull market actually matched that of the 70s, then prices should have risen about 1000%.
The decline from the peak of the first phase of the 70s, took gold from $195.5 to $102.2, a 47.7% drop. The decline from the peak of the first phase of the current bull market, took gold from $1920 to $1041, a 45.8% drop.
The declines are almost similar in extent (47.7% vs 45.8%), however; the decline in the 70s only took about one year and nine months, whereas the decline since 2011, took about four years and three months.
The 70s decline lasted about 35%(1yr 9months/5yrs) of the period of the rise, whereas the decline since 2011 lasted about 40.8% (4yrs 3months/10yrs 5 months) of the period of the rise. This shows that the declines are almost similar relative to the period of the rise in prices.
So, given the above, it appears that the current bull market’s upleg has actually lagged the upleg of the 70s bull market on a relative basis, whereas the declines have almost been similar.
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