Here’s the Bounce… Is the REAL Collapse Just Around the Corner?
by Phoenix Capital Research
ZeroHedge.com
03/15/2016
When it comes to analyzing long-term trends, the 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull market vs. bear market changes.
Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) when stocks break above this line, they’re in a bull market. When they break below it, they’re entering a bear market.
However, when you’re transitioning from a bull to a bear market, stocks usually follow a specific pattern in which there is a bounce to “kiss” former support as the bulls attempt to reignite the lost momentum.
It is only after the “kiss” (the bulls fail) that the real collapse begins.
Again, the pattern is:
1) The initial drop
2) The rally to “kiss” former support
3) The REAL drop
Here’s how it played out during the last transition to a bear market (’07 to ’08).
The Rest…HERE