The Economy Is Now Accelerating On The Downside

Wednesday, April 15, 2015
By Paul Martin
April 15, 2015

With the Dow near 18,100 and crude oil trading above to $56, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece warning that the U.S. economy is now accelerating on the downside. A guest commentary is included from the brilliant economist Richard Yamarone.

From Art Cashin’s notes: Is The Economy Sputtering? – My friend, Rich Yamarone, Bloomberg’s outstanding economist has written a somewhat cautionary note about today’s Industrial Production number and some kindred data. Here’s how he began:

Industrial production is likely to have declined 0.3 percent during March, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. This would follow a paltry 0.1 percent gain in February. The risk to the consensus estimate is to the downside, particularly due to a weather-induced slump in electricity output as winter weather moderated in March relative to February.

Several other indicators, such as a deteriorating capacity utilization rate and rising inventory-to-sales ratios, suggest a reluctance for business spending. That attitude may have forced factories to pull back on the production levers once again in March.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t always have the data to forecast this key measure accurately, so it uses the related data from the monthly Employment Situation report.

The Rest…HERE

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