Kass: Get Ready for the Fall

Wednesday, August 22, 2012
By Paul Martin

By Doug Kass

NEW YORK (Real Money) — It is my view that we might now be approaching a crucial inflection point in the world’s equity markets.

As a result, today’s column will be committed to delivering a more lengthy examination of the markets. Some of my content this morning will be transmitted from points I have previously made, and much will be new.

As most are aware, I have been growing increasingly more cautious about the U.S. stock market.

With the S&P 500 closing yesterday’s session at about 1418, the benchmark index is near the upper end of my long-held expected trading range of 1300-1420 for the remainder of the year.

It may now be time to take a variant and more negative market view. From my perch, the S&P 500 now has an asymmetric risk profile, offering more risk to the downside compared to upside reward and opportunity.

My concerns are broad-based and utilize the entire pyramid of technical/sentiment, valuation and fundamental considerations.

Most importantly, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is turning out to be a life sentence of subpar economic growth.

Growing Complacency Could Lead to a Minsky Moment

The Rest…HERE

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