The Correction Isn’t Over, But Gold’s Headed to $20,000
By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist
Tuesday, 10 December 2013
In April of 2008, Casey International Speculator published an article called “Gold—Relative Performance to Oil” by Professor Krassimir Petrov, then at the American University in Bulgaria, now a visiting professor at Prince of Songkla University in Thailand. He told us he thought the Mania Phase of the gold market was many years off, which was not a popular thing to say at the time:
“In about 8-10 years from now, we should expect the commodity bull market to reach a mania of historic proportions.
“It is important to emphasize that the above projection is entirely mine. I base it on my own studies of historical episodes of manias, bubbles, and more generally of cyclical analysis. In fact, it contradicts many world-renowned scholars in the field. For example, the highly regarded Frank Veneroso and Robert Prechter widely publicized their beliefs that during 2007 there was a commodity bubble; both of them called the collapse in commodity prices in mid-March of 2008 to be the bursting of the bubble. I strongly disagree with them.
“I also disagree with many highly sophisticated gold investors and with our own Doug Casey that the Mania stage, if there is one, will be in 2-3 years, and possibly even sooner… Although I disagree that we will see a mania in a couple years, I expect healthy returns for gold.”
It turned out that Dr. Petrov was right. Five and a half years later, here’s his current take on gold and the metal’s ongoing correction…