Richard Russell – I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This In History
March 7, 2013
With key global markets breaking to new all-time highs, and continued volatility in the gold market, today the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, believes what we are witnessing right now in markets is unlike anything he’s ever seen in history. Here is what Russell had to say to subscribers: “Yesterday history was made when the Dow rose to a new record high and finally confirmed the prior record high put in by the Transports. The question now becomes — what do we have here, a weird kind of bear market or a new bull market?”
Richard Russell continues:
“The honest answer is that in all my years of studying and dealing with the markets, I’ve never seen anything like the action since the 2009 bottom. As a practice study, I rethought the whole 1920s series as if I was reconstructing the events of 1929. Suppose, after the September, 1929 record high in the Dow, the Rails had turned up from the crash lows and had also risen to a new record high?
Then suppose the Dow had followed, and the Dow had risen to a new all-time high? Such action would have been puzzling, but what would analysts have called it? My guess is that analysts would have simply called it “confusing and unprecedented.”
And I’m going to do the same thing today. The collapse of 2008-09 was labeled a bear market by everybody. The bull market of 1980 to 2007 was obviously a huge bull market which lasted 27 years. Following a 27-year bull market, we might have expected a bear market lasting one-third to two-thirds as long as the preceding bull market.
A bear market lasting one-third (nine years) in duration as long as the 1980-2007 bull market would be expected to carry into at least 2016. Thus, on a timing basis I have to think that all the stock market action since 2007 was one continuous and erratic bear market.
Question — OK, Russell, then what about the record highs recorded by both the Dow and the Transports?