“There Will Be No Recovery”
Jan 23 2013
“There will be no recovery.” This line is one I use often. I am sure readers are tiring of it. Yet these five words, I believe, accurately summarize our future.
No time frame is reflected in the statement, but a “long one” is implied. Obviously there will be a recovery at some point, just not within a time frame considered normal. I began using these words long before the declared recovery in June 2009. The statement certainly has been correct since before then and until today. The declared end of the recession in 2009 was then and is especially in hindsight, ill-advised. One can imagine it as Orwellian propaganda, but not economics. There has been no recovery and many economic statistics have deteriorated in this declared period of recovery.
Will there ever be a recovery? Sure, but it will not come before a cataclysm. The cataclysm will shake the economy, financial markets and perhaps society itself in a manner never seen in this country. A cleansing, a catharsis, a complete purging of the economy, financial markets and government must occur before healing can commence. The cancer eating our essence must be excised. The process will be neither quick nor pleasant, but it is a precondition to true recovery.