THE WORLD IS HEADING TO A DOUBLE-DIP: JOBLESS, INFLATION, POVERTY, RECESSION… NIGEL FARAGE THINKS IT’S REVOLUTION TIME
November 15th, 2012
The US Conference Board’s report on the global economy is negative on all fronts. The growth is over.
from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
The catch-up boom in China, India, Brazil is largely over and will be followed by a drastic slowdown over the next decade, according to a grim report by America’s top forecasting body.
Europe’s prognosis is even worse, with France trapped in depression with near zero growth as far as 2025 and Britain struggling to raise its speed limit to 1pc over the next three Parliaments.
The US Conference Board’s global economic outlook calls into question the “BRICs” miracle (Brazil, Russia, India, China), arguing that the low-hanging fruit from cheap labour and imported technology has already been picked.
China’s double-digit expansion rates will soon be a romantic memory. Growth will fall to 6.9pc next year, then to 5.5pc from 2014-2018, and 3.7pc from 2019-2025 as the aging crisis hits and investment returns go into “rapid decline”.
Growth in India – where the reform agenda has been “largely derailed” – will fall to 4.7pc to 2018, and then to 3.9pc. Brazil will slip to 3pc and then 2.7pc. Such growth rates will leave these countries stuck in the “middle income trap”, dashing hopes for a quick jump into the affluent league.
“As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive ‘catch-up’ growth, the structural ‘speed limits’ of their economies are likely to decline,” said the Board.