Global systemic crisis – Autumn 2012: Welcome to the weeks of the big swing / Geopolitics, trigger of a big new global shock
For several months we have anticipated a major shock for the economy and global political stability for Autumn 2012. We are maintaining this “Red Alert” and will take stock mid-November 2012, at the same time as our annual analysis of the 2013 “risk-countries”, and on the state of the world at this time.
These last few weeks, as predicted by our team, the world geopolitical situation has rapidly deteriorated: the Syrian conflict has become a regional conflict in which the major powers are now trying not to be drawn in beyond the limits that they have set (1); to the North of the Sahel (Mali, Niger, …) a new military confrontation between Islamists and the West is in the offing (2); the China Sea has been turned into zone of “tepid” conflicts across the board with Japan and China in the middle of brewing chaos (3); the major world economies are all entering recession (4); social unrest is growing just like tax pressure,… and there is no more liquidity available (even QE has an effectiveness in freefall (5)) as was still the case in 2009.
In this issue, our team thus takes stock of Western real estate prospects out to 2013 and adds a special anticipation “Netherlands Real Estate” due to the real estate crash in progress in this country. At the same time we continue to explore the socio-political consequences for 2013 of the increasing unrest in public opinion, concentrating here on the United States (6). Finally, after a review and a schedule of the main trends for the next few months, we expand on our recommendations concerning real estate, gold and the stock exchanges.