Sudan declares war on South Sudan: Will this draw in East Africa, and China?
April 19, 2012
AFRICA – After South Sudan seizes Heglig oil fields, which both countries claim, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir declares war. How can the international community prevent a regional conflict? Although relations between the two countries started out well, hostilities had been brewing almost from the very beginning, over how the two countries would share revenues from the sale of oil – most of which is now within South Sudan’s territory, and all of which must be transported through Sudan’s oil pipelines to foreign markets. The final spark, though, appears to have been over the borders between the two countries. South Sudan had long banked on receiving the Abyei region, including the oil fields nearby at Heglig. Last week, South Sudanese troops took Heglig by force, prompting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to proclaim a state of war. While there is no formal declaration of war, Bashir told troops at a rally that they would be marching to Juba, South Sudan’s capital. On Thursday, Bashir described the fight against South Sudan to be a “jihad” or holy struggle. It’s a word that may be intended to stiffen the backs of his own army, the vast majority of whom are Muslims, or it may be a call for help from Muslims worldwide. Many Muslims consider jihad to be a collective effort, where any Muslim country under threat must be defended by any faithful Muslim who is capable of fighting on its behalf. More quietly, Sudan may also draw on support from some of its larger trade partners, including China. According to Africa Confidential, a respected journal, a trio of UN experts found evidence that Chinese ammunition has made its way to pro-Khartoum militias in the Darfur region. The trio’s report was rejected by the UN Secretary General’s office, but the experts simply sent the report on to the UN Security Council. If the evidence proves true, it could indicate a covert violation of UN weapons embargo against a state that is accused of launching an ethnic cleansing and genocide campaign against several tribes in the Darfur region. China’s state-owned oil companies are part of a consortium that has exploration contracts along both sides of the Sudan-South Sudan border. What we are witnessing now, therefore, could be the beginning of a wider conflict, one that draws in South Sudan’s friendly neighbors such as Uganda and Kenya on one hand, and that draws in Chinese military hardware, a disparate collection of Islamist volunteers for Sudan, along with all the remaining resources that Khartoum can muster. All-out war is not inevitable. But if it truly starts, this is not likely to end well. -CSM