U.S. Standing Down on Military Action as Iran’s Internal Power Struggle Unfolds
Apr 04, 2012
A strike on Iran, however limited, would push the current internal power struggle to a premature end that would not be in the US’ best interests – that is the message, whether intentional or not, of the recent “intelligence leak” that has provided the Obama Administration with justification for standing down with regard to Iran.
Earlier this week, the media had a field day with “intelligence leaks” suggesting that there is no imminent threat of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, apparently with the concurrence of Israel’s Mossad.
There are two things to be avoided in this discourse, the first being the obvious reality that intelligence is used to support policy decisions and “leaks” are one tool through which this is accomplished.
Also less important is the discussion on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which can be largely summed up by noting that civil nuclear programs can enrich uranium which can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iran can decide at any moment to pursue this path. It is an unknown that has been used to push public opinion in a number of directions.
Interestingly, the public (media) can so easily accept “intelligence leaks” that accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons but cannot accept a “leak” to the opposite because of an ingrained fixation on themes that are Cold War-ish in nature.
This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about containing Iran on a number of levels.
On a foreign policy level, the bloody window of opportunity to ensure that Syria will no longer be a part of Iran’s efforts to create a Shi’ite triangle of influence against Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in the region will do much to contain Iran.
On another level, though, foremost to containing Iran is understanding the internal struggle for power, when to harness the momentum and when to step back, recognizing how external actions could play out.