2012 Gold Averages: Goldman $1,810/oz, Barclays $2,000/oz and UBS $2,050/oz
The gold market barely reacted to Jong Ill’s death. The death could contribute to further short term weakness and dollar strength but geopolitical instability in Asia should lead to further safe haven demand for gold.
A Reuters poll of hedge fund managers showed how sentiment towards gold remains subdued and negative. Hedge fund managers are negative on gold’s price prospects in the near term with many saying gold will fall below $1,500 an ounce over the next three months.
However, even hedge fund managers are positive on gold in the medium term and believe that gold is likely to retest September’s all-time highs – possibly by late 2012.
The industry itself as represented by government mints, refineries, brokers, bullion banks remains more bullish than hedge fund managers. Much of the industry would have an expertise and an insight into the precious metals market that your average hedge fund manager would not.
Managed money in gold futures and options cut bullish bets for the second consecutive week the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. This is another contrarian signal that gold is close to bottoming.