One last sell-off for silver before we head back to $50?
After seven years of investing in precious metals you become something of an old-hand, not that this would impress the true veterans who recall the late 1970s. They are getting a bit old themselves now.
A sprightly 87-year old President Carter was on the BBC last night for a long interview, and sounded very impressive unless you are old enough to remember his abysmal presidency.
The man himself comes across as a bit of a 60s dreamer with flowers in his hair and peace and love stamped on his face. He is very genuine and has not made a cent out of being an ex-president. But he was a disaster, hopelessly out of his depth in Washington during a period when the world needed leadership.
Goodness knows how much his goodly nature cost the world! He was also US president in the last silver boom. Inflation got completely out of control. The Hunt Brothers cornered the silver market and sent prices sky high. Only President Reagan and Fed chairman Paul Volcker saved the world from a hyper-inflation with their monetarist clampdown.
So where are we today for the tiny global silver market? We still seem to be in the early days of an inflation, and could even have another deflation of asset prices on our hands if the eurozone messes up its bailout package or a rapid inflation if they double-up on money printing as most seem to expect.
It is never that easy to judge is it? And markets are so confused they are not giving us much guidance. Technical analysis is only right until it it wrong as fundamentals tend to repeat but never exactly.
But the silver charts are predicting another backtracking in prices, according to the singularly precient CliveMaund.com. At a fundamental level that could come from another nasty twist in the eurozone saga sending markets into a dive and a flight to the US dollar and out of silver and gold: 2008 revisited!