Secession in the Winds Texas & Catalonia
by Martin Armstrong
ArmstrongEconomics.com
September 26, 2015
Our Cycle of War used as the seed the Wheeler Index. However, there were some major problems with key events that were overlooked. So we corrected the data and then extended it for the period following his death. We then created a parallel index correlated to economics. The next result was a series of cycles appeared and a correlation with the economy emerged very clearly interfaced with debt. The fundamental principle to emerge from that work was the fact that we could both distinguish between domestic civil unrest which begins and at times moves into revolution, and international events. There are interesting political responses which often determine the outcome.
On the international level, war emerges from two separate trends. First there is the more traditional trend where the economy turns down which results in government needing too find an external enemy or there will be civil unrest that overthrows the government. This version is intertwined with the Civil Unrest Model and is often the escape value for government to retain power. Here the domestic unrest model can be transformed into an international conflict if politics is desperate to save itself and sees that way out.
The second trend stands in contrast to the first in what we identified as the Conquest Model whereby governments seek to expand their territory for money and power detached from economic pressure caused by a decline. This can be seen as Alexander the Great, Rome, Charlemagne and Japan, etc. The subdivision of the international conflict level we call the retribution model whereby there is a preceding economic crisis. This subdivision is illustrated by Napoleon and Hitler. These were trends that were also an admixture between domestic economic problems that leads to war as in the case of Napoleon and Hitler as distinguished from a pure power expansion.
Creating a database that could distinguish all these moving parts was key to creating our model for the Cycle of War ™ which others have tried to mimic without the database assuming all we did was use the Wheeler Index. The cycle frequency we discovered is not discoverable from using just the Wheeler Index.
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