Warning: Crash Dead Ahead. Sell. Get Liquid. Now
Commentary: ‘Game’s in the refrigerator.’ Power’s turning off. Dow sinking below 6,470
“This game’s in the refrigerator! The door’s closed, the lights are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter’s getting hard and the Jell-O is jiggling …”
That was legendary Lakers’ radio announcer Chick Hearn’s signature way of calling a game early, telling fans the home team won … you can head for the exits before the final buzzer. Chick wrote the book with popular sports phrases like “slam dunk,” “air ball,” “charity stripe,” and a “bunny hop in the pea patch” for a traveling violation.
Chick’s our inspiration today: Last March I wrote “6 reasons I’m calling a bottom and a new bull.” Today it’s time for a new call. We’ve had a good year. Net gains over 50% in 2009. But now: “Game over, head for the exits.” Bears beating bulls.
No, no, “it’s a buying opportunity,” says another legend, hedge fund manager, Barton Biggs. Buying opportunity? For who? Remember, Biggs isn’t advising Joe Lunchbox about what to do with his little 401(k). Biggs’ customers are mega-millionaires in his $1.5 billion Traxis Partners Fund. Main Street investors like Joe are prey in his casino.
Read on, you decide: As you stare from high up in the nose-bleed bleachers watching the game, staring at a Dow that not long ago was above 11,000 and heading for 12,000. Now the Dow’s sitting on the bench, ready for the showers, weak after a couple air balls around 10,000. No more timeouts. “This game’s in the refrigerator.”
How bad is your bookie’s point spread in this game? A blowout? Will the Dow drop below 9,000 again? Now that it’s broken technical supports, will it drop below 6,470, where the last bull rally started in early 2009? Can you handle the nerve-racking volatility generated by Wall Street’s high-frequency traders playing the game at warp-speed with algorithms making thousands of micro-bets in milliseconds, betting billions daily?
So who should you listen to? Barton and I arrived at Morgan Stanley about the same time. He stayed decades longer, became one of the world’s leading strategists, advising the kind of high-rollers who also bet at private tables in a Vegas casino.
You remember Biggs: In his book “Wealth, War & Wisdom” he advises his high rollers to prepare for a “breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.” Buy a farm: “Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food … It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson.” Biggs is not advising small investors on what to do with their 401(k)s.
If you’re gambling at Wall Street’s casino, folks, the odds-makers are betting against Biggs. It’s “game over.”
Main Street lost 20% last decade … yet like sheep keep going back
Yes, if you’re channeling Chick, here’s your “mixed metaphor” cue card: “This game’s in the refrigerator … Wall Street won (proof, Goldman’s $100-million-profit trading days and Blankfein’s $68 million bonus) … Main Street’s headed for another losing streak … Congress’ lights are out … the refrigerator door’s closing on financial reforms … the lobbyists are laying some rotten eggs, poisoning capitalism … the Tea Party-of-No-No ideologies are hardening … the bull’s Jell-O is jiggling to a flat line … and this market’s going into hibernation, with the bears … run, don’t walk, to the exits, folks.”
But will Main Street exit? Will we ever learn? No. The Wall Street casino makes mega-billions for insiders like Blankfein and the Goldman Conspiracy. Yet “The Casino” is still below the 2000 record of 11,722. So after accounting for inflation, Wall Street lost over 20% of Main Street’s 401(k) retirement money between 2000 and 2010. Yes, Wall Street’s a big loser the past decade. Their advice is self-serving. Period.
Given their miserable track record, only a fool would bet with Wall Street. Betting odds are Wall Street will lose another 20% in the next decade from 2010-2020. Yes, today’s market is a “buying opportunity,” but only for Wall Street casino insiders like Biggs, Blankfein and even low-level staffers inside “The Casino.” But not for our 95 million Main Street investors, there’s more pain ahead, this market’s dropping.
Correction? New crash imminent, worse than 2008
More proof: Earlier economist Gary Shilling said price-to-earnings ratios are at a “nosebleed 22.5 level.” The Dow was around 11,000. Money manager Jeremy Grantham recently said the market’s overvalued 40%. That could mean a collapse to 6,600. Last week in Reuters’ “Markets Could Be Derailed Again,” George Soros echoed a “game over” warning with a “stark warning … that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.”
Now Dow Theory’s Richard Russell is warning the public of an imminent crash: “Sell … get liquid … by the end of this year they won’t recognize the country.”