Ebola outbreak: where we are now and what happens next
Colin Brown
TheConversation.com
January 16 2015
Ebola virus disease was first discovered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, and by 2013 had caused about 20 recorded outbreaks across East and Central Africa. These had been restricted to rural areas and confined to small clusters of villages. In each case containment was achieved within a few months and after fewer than 500 confirmed cases. The world assumed that Ebola was too efficient at killing its hosts, doomed to quickly burn out wherever it arose.
The 2014 West African outbreak has changed everything. It was the “Black Swan” – the inevitable consequence we did not foresee. As we head into mid-January 2015, there have been more than 21,000 reported cases spread across nearly every region in three adjacent countries, and more than 8,000 people are known to have died.
Cases have cropped up in the US, Mali, Senegal and Nigeria. Patients have been treated across Western Europe. Until early November 2014, there was no sign of a reduction in transmission and case numbers were rising exponentially. As we wrote in the journal Tropical Doctor, though numbers are now slowing in Guinea and Liberia, there is still an increase in cases in Sierra Leone where 500 healthcare workers have died. There is no certainty the other affected countries will not again see an upsurge in new cases.
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