Ebola Study Projects Spread of Virus

Tuesday, October 21, 2014
By Paul Martin

Up to 3 Infected People Could Fly Overseas Every Month From Most-Affected African Nations

By Gautam Naik
WSJ.com
Oct. 20, 2014

Up to three Ebola-infected people could embark on overseas flights every month from the three most-affected African countries, according to a new study that projected travel patterns based on infection rates and recent flight schedules.

The findings, published Monday in the journal Lancet, suggest that Ebola cases could be spread overseas by unwitting travelers from the worst-hit countries—Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The World Health Organization has estimated that, by early December, there could be as many as 10,000 new cases a week in west Africa.

The upshot is “that controlling the outbreak at the source is the most important thing that needs to happen” to prevent the international spread of the virus, said Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto and lead author of the study.

The researchers’ analysis assumed no exit screening in the airports of the three African nations. In reality, exit screenings occur, but the authors contend that this doesn’t change their conclusion because screenings can miss travelers who don’t yet show signs of Ebola. A person can incubate the virus for up to 21 days without exhibiting signs of the disease.

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