Computer model suggests 5,000 Ebola deaths by September 24; hundreds of thousands soon after
by: Jonathan Benson
NaturalNews.com
Monday, September 15, 2014
Based on its current rate of spread, the West African Ebola outbreak is expected to surge in the coming weeks, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. Researchers from Northeastern University in Boston have projected that as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola will be confirmed by September 24, with about 5,000 of these resulting in death.
Using the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model as a benchmark, Marcelo F. C. Gomes and his colleagues estimated the likelihood of disease spread with 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. This included looking at daily airline passenger traffic worldwide as well as disease spread within hospitals, at funerals and within entire communities.
With a reproductive number (Re) of 1 representing the tipping point at which disease spreads — anything higher than 1 means that the outbreak will continue to spread, while anything less means that it is being contained — the team estimates the current Ebola outbreak to be between 1.5 and 2.0. In the short term, this means continued and increasing spread throughout West Africa.
In the long term, international spread is also a possibility, with the strong likelihood of exponential growth if the situation is not contained sooner rather than later. As far as Liberia is concerned, where a bulk of the current outbreak is occurring, the figures don’t look very promising — the number of dead over the past several months could more than double in just a few weeks.
“The numbers are really scary,” stated Alessandro Vespignani, a physicist at Northeastern and author of the study. “We all hope to see this NOT happening.”
Hundreds of thousands could catch Ebola by December 1
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