The (Unofficial) Beginning of the Double Dip Recession

Tuesday, September 28, 2010
By Paul Martin

By Addison Wiggin
TheDailyReckoning.com
09/27/10

Today, we take a belated bow for calling the “official” end of the recession… by declaring a “double dip” to be unofficially under way.

Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared the Great Recession ended in June 2009. Turns out, looking back, we called it in real-time — relying on a single obscure indicator.

It’s called “capacity utilization” — that is, all the plant, equipment and other resources business have at their disposal, and what percentage of it businesses are actually putting to work.

On June 17, 2009, we pointed out that “over the last 40 years, a bottom in capacity utilization has marked the precise end of recessions.”

The Rest…HERE

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