Gold’s Strongest Months Since 1975 Are September And November
Friday, 30 August 2013
Gold quickly fell from $1,407/oz to $1,395/oz at 0800 London time despite no data of note and little corresponding movement in oil and stock markets. Profit taking and an increase in risk appetite may have contributed to the falls after the U.K. parliament voted to reject military action against Syria and fears over oil supply disruptions in the Middle East eased.
Oil prices are still heading for the largest monthly gain in a year, with Brent up more than 6% in August after unrest cut output in Libya by around 1 million barrels per day and production fell in Iraq, Nigeria and elsewhere.
The U.S. seems likely to proceed with a strike against Syria even after U.K. lawmakers rejected action which should support prices. The yellow metal reached $1,433.83/oz on August 28th, its highest since mid May on concerns that the U.S. will go to war with Syria.
Gold’s recent gains are primarily due to very strong physical demand globally and increasing supply issues, particularly in the LBMA gold bullion market. Syria and the increasing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East are creating real oil price and inflation risk which has contributed to the increased bullion buying in recent days.
As ever it is important to focus on the medium and long term drivers of the gold market:
Medium Term Market Drivers
The medium market themes guiding the market currently are as follows:
Late summer, autumn and early New Year are the seasonally strong periods for the gold market due to robust physical demand internationally.