Experts: This Is A Time For Caution. Current Stock Market A Reminder of January 2000. U.S. Economy Will Enter A Severe Recession, The Economic Implosion Of Europe Will Continue To Accelerate, Stocks Will Collapse in 2013. This Time It May Never Be Possible To Exit From It Completely
January 9th, 2013
Howard Marks: “There Are Times For Aggressiveness; Now Is A Time For Caution”
Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks begins his latest missive with a few hard truths. Anyone who has read his memos of the last 23 years will see he returns often to a few topics. This is due to the frequency with which themes tend to recur in the investment world. Humans, he notes, often fail to learn. They forget the lessons of history, repeat patterns of behavior and make the same mistakes….
In 2004, I stated the following conclusion: “There are times for aggressiveness. I think this is a time for caution.” Here as 2013 begins, I have only one word to add: ditto.
The greatest of all investment adages states that “what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” The wise man invested aggressively in late 2008 and early 2009. I believe only the fool is doing so now. Today, in place of aggressiveness, the challenging search for return should incorporate goodly doses of risk control, caution, discipline and selectivity.