Another Perfect Storm Brewing: 4th Quarter Earnings Will be an Unmitigated Disaster, Obama’s $264 Billion Tax Bill for 2013 May Spark New Recession, China’s Inflation Is Spiking, Eurozone Unemployment Hits All-Time Highs, AND A Gigantic Asteroid Barreling Towards Earth In Mid-February!!!
January 8th, 2013
Brace Yourself: Earnings Disappointments Ahead
The buzz is modest at best for the fourth-quarter earnings season. Don’t be surprised to see your fair share of disappointments.
It’s being called the new normal. And at this point we are all used to it — an anemic growth story for the U.S. and global economy. And while the fourth quarter is typically an earnings grower due to holiday spending spurring money movement, the buzz I am hearing is modest at best for the fourth-quarter earnings season.
Don’t be surprised to see your fair share of disappointments.
At the end of 2012, S&P Capital IQ had an expectation of earnings growth for the fourth quarter of some 16.5 percent … pretty good right? Well, that was two months ago. Today, that expectation is down to growth of just 3.3 percent, largely because individuals and businesses are hoarding cash. It doesn’t matter much if companies have trillions in cash on the sidelines if they don’t do anything with it. This is partly due to the stand-still Washington left business in for the entire fourth quarter, as we all guessed what tax rates and regulation would look like.