A Genius Investor Thinks Billions Of People Are Going To Starve To Death — Here’s Why…We’re running out of fertilizer.
Henry Blodget and Rob Wile
Dec. 4, 2012
Investor Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently published a startlingly depressing outlook for the future of humanity.
Grantham thinks the number of people on Earth has finally and permanently outstripped the planet’s ability to support us.
Grantham believes that the planet can only sustainably support about 1.5 billion humans, versus the 7 billion on Earth right now (heading to 10-12 billion).
Basically, Grantham thinks most of us are going to starve to death.
In part because we’re churning through a finite supply of something that is critical to our ability to produce food: Phosphorus.
Phosphorus is a critical ingredient of fertilizer, and there is a finite supply of it. The consensus is that we will hit “peak phosphorus” production within a few decades, after which point our phosphorus supply will inexorably decline. As it declines, we will be unable to feed ourselves. And you know the rest.