We Are Witnessing The First Great Depression Of The 21th Century: 2013 Will Be A Year of Serious Global Crisis. Austerity, High Tax Rates, Near-Zero Growth Will Last At Least A Decade, Natural Resources Are Running Out At An Alarming Rate, And Many Won’t Survive.
November 26th, 2012
GRANTHAM: Here Are The Basic Forces That Will Send Growth To Near-Zero For Decades
from Jeremy Grantham:
“Someday, when the debt is repaid and housing is normal and Europe has settled down, most business people seem to expect a recovery back to America’s old 3.4% a year growth trend, or at least something close,” he wrote. “They should not hold their breath.
“A declining growth trend is inevitable and permanent and is caused by some pretty basic forces.”
Those basic forces include unfavorable demographic trends, decelerating productivity growth, tightening resource constraints, and rising environmental costs.
Tax hikes are inevitable: 2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in Four Fearsome Ways
Will 2013 be 1937? This is the question many analysts are posing as the stock market has dropped after the U.S. election. On Nov. 16, they noted that industrial production, a crucial figure, dropped as well.
In this case, “1937” means a market drop similar to the one after the re-election of another Democratic president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1936.
The drop wasn’t immediate in that case; it came in the first full year after the election. Industrial productionplummeted by 34.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by half, from almost 200 in early 1937 to less than 100 at the end of March 1938.