MARKET SHOCK IS COMING: 90% Of Corporate Forecasts See Results Below Wall Street Consensus And A Massive Estimates Cut Across The Board Imminent!!
October 25th, 2012
Q4 gloom: 90% of corporate forecasts see results below Wall Street consensus
Halfway through the third-quarter earnings season, one thing is becoming clear: the fourth quarter is likely to be gloomy.
Right now analysts have so many variables going on, they have to run more scenarios than is practicable. The problem with that practice is that the longer analysts wait, the more pronounced an effect it’ll have on markets when they do cut estimates.
“I’m just hoping it will not be a massive one across the board,” Silverblatt said. “That can come somewhat as a shock.”
As of Tuesday midday, among S&P 500 companies, 35 out of 39 firms, or 90%, that gave forecasts have provided an earnings outlook that guides below the Wall Street consensus, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That’s even worse than the 78% negative forecast rate going into third-quarter earnings season, which was the lowest recorded by FactSet since it began tracking the data in 2006.
Similarly, among S&P 500 companies, 25 out of 28, or 89%, have said fourth-quarter revenue will come in below consensus.
Most notably, the tech and industrial sectors are calling for a rough fourth quarter.