Kass: Get Ready for the Fall
By Doug Kass
NEW YORK (Real Money) — It is my view that we might now be approaching a crucial inflection point in the world’s equity markets.
As a result, today’s column will be committed to delivering a more lengthy examination of the markets. Some of my content this morning will be transmitted from points I have previously made, and much will be new.
As most are aware, I have been growing increasingly more cautious about the U.S. stock market.
With the S&P 500 closing yesterday’s session at about 1418, the benchmark index is near the upper end of my long-held expected trading range of 1300-1420 for the remainder of the year.
It may now be time to take a variant and more negative market view. From my perch, the S&P 500 now has an asymmetric risk profile, offering more risk to the downside compared to upside reward and opportunity.
My concerns are broad-based and utilize the entire pyramid of technical/sentiment, valuation and fundamental considerations.
Most importantly, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is turning out to be a life sentence of subpar economic growth.
Growing Complacency Could Lead to a Minsky Moment