Inevitably, It’s All Falling Apart
For a few years I have been warning that there can be no recovery. The passage of time has not changed my opinion but is beginning to change the opinions of others who previously believed the government recovery propaganda. Even Keynesians tip their hands as to the real state of the economy when they claim the stimulus was not big enough. Faulty economic methodology rather than size never seems to cross their minds.
The recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. To many Americans, heralding that the recession was over and a recovery was underway was a cruel joke. There has been no recovery, at least in any normal sense. In the US GDP has grown pitifully. The end of a recession is usually followed by very rapid quarterly GDP growth in the range of 6 – 8%. That has not occurred. Last quarter was a puny 1.9%. If anything, expect to hear increasing talk about a dreaded double-dip. If we never got out of the first downturn, which I believe, how is it possible to have a double-dip?
The NBER’s recession may be over but the people’s recession is not — 59% recently polled said we are in a recession. That is a remarkable number given the media’s rose-colored reporting and cheerleading. Apparently people believe their own eyes instead of what they are being told to believe. How dare they!