Marc Faber Sees 100% Probability Of Global Recession In 2013
by Tyler Durden
From around two minutes into this CNBC clip, Marc Faber brings the conversation back into sharp focus. Noting that “whenever everybody focuses on just one thing – Greece and Europe in this case – there are other things that are far more important – such as a meaningful slowdown in India and China – going on that are being ignored”. But remaining on the topic of Europe, Faber consistently opines that the next event risk will be the Greek exit – even though Faber suspects strongly that Germany will cave to Eurobonds eventually – as he comments that the longer the delay of a restructuring/default/exit/euro-bonds takes the higher the probability of a gigantic systemic failure. This subject brings up (at around 3:30) an interesting perspective that the European market would be oddly relieved (not plunging 50%) if Greek exited the Euro as there would be some clarity (though Faber adds that bank and insurance stocks would likely be crushed). At five minutes in though, Faber ramps up the rhetoric noting that while stock indices are not performing terribly, there are many economically sensitive (and luxury) stocks that are down very significantly – which suggests to him that the huge asset price run of the last decades in come to an end prompting the question of the day from CNBC’s Cramer-stand-in “You’re not looking for a recession in the US are you?” Faber, in his calm, thoughtful way responds, “I think we will have a global recession late this year, early next year”, to which a stunned Wapner asks for odds (surely 30%, 50%?) of this recession – “100% certainty” comes the reply to leave Wapner throwing in the towel on any positive spin as Faber suggests the only ‘investment’ in this case is ‘Cash USD’ and investors must own some gold.