Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!
by Reggie Middleton
Greece will default on this latest set of bailout/restructured bonds much faster than they did on the bonds they replaced!
Two years ago in “Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! I compared the then Grecian situation to that of Damocles. Well, things have gotten much worse since then and I believe I was one of the most bearish (and accurate) at that time. Now, Greece resembles Icarus tumbing down from the skies, drenched in Hubris. Subscribers can download my full thoughts on Greece’s sustainability post bailout here – debt restructuring_maturity extension blog – March 2012. Professional and institutional subscribers should feel free to email me in order to receive a copy of the Greek restructuring model used to create these charts and come to these conclusions.
Despite extensive, self-defeating, harsh and punitive austerity measures that have combined with a lack of true economic stimulus, Greece has (to date) failed to achievePrimary Balance. For the non-economists in the audience, primary balance is the elimination of a primary deficit, yet the absence of a primary surplus, ex. the midpoint between deficit and surplus before taking into consideration interest payments.