Double-Dip Recession Warning Signs Everywhere! Batten Down the Hatches!
by Mike Larson
The bright red warning signs of a double-dip recession are flashing everywhere. And I do mean EVERYWHERE.
In just the past few days, we learned that …
• New home sales imploded 33 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 units. That’s the lowest ever recorded!
• Durable goods orders tanked 1.1 percent in May, while housing construction skidded 10 percent.
• Consumer confidence plunged to 52.9 in June, according to the Conference Board. That was a huge drop from 62.7 in May and well below the 62.5 that economists were expecting
• The Dallas Fed’s gauge of manufacturing activity dropped to -4 percent from 2.9 percent. The Chicago Fed’s activity index fell to 0.21 from 0.25. The Richmond Fed’s index fell to 23 from 26, while the Philadelphia Fed’s index plunged to 8 from 21.4, the worst reading in 10 months.
The message here? This isn’t some isolated, regional downturn. It’s one that’s spreading to every corner of the United States.
• The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index is falling off a cliff. Its growth rate just fell to NEGATIVE 6.9 percent, the worst reading in a year and far below the high of POSITIVE 28.5 percent in October. The last time this index tanked this much, recession struck within a few months.
Talk about a laundry list of worrisome reports.
If it were just the “official” economic data that was getting worse, you might be inclined to discount it. But it’s not …
Market-Based Signals of Recession Risk
And Systemic Risk are Going Berserk, Too!