Silver Price Could Double by Year End
By: Jason Hamlin
Were you cursing at your computer screen when silver nearly tripled during the short 9 months from September 2010 to May 2011? Silver at $20 seemed like an insurmountable threshold for quite some time. This caused many silver investors to give up just prior to the ascent, completely missing the ride towards $50. I believe silver is about to offer a similar ride. While it is unlikely to match the 180% advance mentioned above, look for silver to make new highs in the coming months, with the potential to double to $65 by year end.
ollowing the record gains in silver during late 2010 and early 2011, the metal crashed towards $25 and has since rebounded to around $33. Investor sentiment has crashed along with it. The threat of Euro nations defaulting, banks announcing they are, well, bankrupt, and a series of other factors have scared away many of the Johnny-come-lately silver bulls.
I think too many investors are underestimating the power of the central banks. While I agree they are running out of options, it seems that their ability to kick the can down the road has yet to expire. Given that the United States is heading into election season and President Obama is in full campaign mode, I expect the administration to pull out all stops in order to continue the illusion of economic prosperity a while longer. Every economic fire of consequence is being extinguished with fresh liquidity, more funny money or new legislation. In case you missed it, QE3 has been in full force for quite some time, albeit executed in a somewhat stealth manner.
The implications for silver (and gold to a lesser degree) are going to be incredibly bullish. Absent a deflationary sovereign default that spirals out of control and takes down major banks with it, stocks will continue to creep higher in volatile trade throughout the year. Once fear begins to subside, look for precious metals to come roaring back to new highs by mid-year. Whenever the next financial crisis finally hits, we are likely to witness a new injection of quantitative easing that is even stronger than what transpired in 2008.
Will a major debt default pull down gold, silver and mining stocks with it? Absolutely.
Will it last? Not likely.