The Crash of 2012: The Storm is Coming
Jeff Thomas-International Man
(Note: The following article was written in May of 2011, but publication was delayed until now, as the situation had not yet progressed to the point that readers might have considered the pattern of events described below as even being within the realm of possibility. As the situation discussed in this article is now getting closer, the projections below may seem less fanciful.)
In high school history class, the Great Depression was explained. We were taught, essentially, that in 1929 there was a stock market crash, and after that, lots of people were desperately poor. Whilst this is true, the explanation is overly simplified to the point that there is no practical lesson we can learn from it.
Here’s what actually happened: In the autumn of 1929, the first in a series of waves occurred in the stock market — a downward wave. It was followed by a rally (upward wave), then a much deeper and longer downward wave. This third wave, in turn, was followed by a series of smaller upward and downward waves until the market hit bottom in 1932-33.
In studying these waves (Elliot Wave Theory), it becomes apparent that the same waves occur in any major market fluctuation, and the degree of downside is always relative to the degree of upside. The third wave is always the most extreme.
I anticipate that the third wave in the present series is imminent. It will be deeper and longer than the downward wave of 2008. The others will be smaller, but ultimately, together they will be more severe than the series of fluctuations from 1929-1932.
On the surface, it seems unlikely that financial downturns would behave predictably, but Elliott Wave Theory is based upon human nature. In any era, the reactions to events will be similar, as human nature remains the same, regardless of the era we live in. The present unraveling of the American Empire is remarkably similar to that of the Roman Empire and other empires in the interim.
A Little History