Why the Greater Depression Still Lies Ahead
by Michael Pento
June 30, 2010
If one does not know the real cause of a problem, they should also be unable to provide a genuine solution.
Messer’s Obama, Bernanke and Geithner do not understand the real cause of this debt crisis. They are politicians first and economists or students of the market second; if at all. Therefore, it is not wise to ask them if the great recession is indeed over, or for them to provide a plan to prevent another from occurring in the future.
The cause of the Great Depression in the 1930’s and the Great Recession beginning in 2007 was an overleveraged economy. An overleveraged economy is the direct result of artificially-provided low interest rates from the central bank and superfluous lending on the part of commercial banks. That easy money provided by banks eventually brings debt levels in the economy to an unsustainable level. At that point, the only real and viable solution is for the public and private sector to undergo a protracted period of deleveraging. The ensuing depression is, in actuality, the healing process at work, which is marked by the selling of assets and the paying down of debt.
However, all efforts on the part of our politicians today are to fight the natural healing process and to promote the accumulation of more debt. During this latest economic contraction, the Fed took interest rates to near zero percent and the administration is leveraging up the public sector to record levels in order to re-leverage the private sector. The government’s philosophy is tantamount to sticking a frost bitten man in the freezer so he won’t have to suffer the pain associated with thawing off his extremities.