Goldman On German Q3 GDP: “Last Hurrah Before The Recession”
by Tyler Durden
This update out of Goldman’s Dirk Schumacher is probably not good news for anyone who believes that a high EURUSD, contrary to conventional wisdom, is a good thing for Europe. “German Q3 GDP: a last hurrah before the recession. The statistical office will release third quarter GDP figures tomorrow morning and we expect a quarterly increase of +0.3% after +0.1%; BBG consensus is +0.4%qoq. The risks of this forecast are to the upside and the strong industrial production figure as well as the robust trade figures would argue for a stronger quarterly growth figure. We see, however, a good chance for an upward revision of the disappointingly low Q2 figure (+0.1%qoq), implying a higher starting level for GDP in Q3 and therefore a somewhat smaller increase in Q3. In any case, the latest monthly figures, in particular business sentiment, point to a clear loss of momentum during the quarter and we think that the German economy has slid into recession in Q4. Whether this will be major recession or not will obviously depend on several factors not least the question whether some stabilisation in peripheral sovereign debt markets can be achieved or not. One factor that points to moderate recession is the on-going relative favourable funding conditions for German banks and corporate (see chart).” In other words: a “soft recessionary landing” – those predictions always work out just fine.