Major Economic Indicator Still in Freefall
BY DOUG SHORT
Last week, September 30th, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down — before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake — to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”