Chain-Reaction Revolution: How Government Blunders May Trigger Mass Unrest
By Michael Vail(CEO of StratRisks LLC)
September 15, 2011
I may have forgotten much from my high school and college days but I do remember how a chemical chain-reaction works. The cause, effect and eventual aftermath can be reproduced not only in a science class but in our own backyards. The colour revolutions and mass Arab movements have shown that known and unknown variables can cause major shifts in any stable nation. Let’s find those root causes which bring about such turmoil. That instability sends shock waves around the world and strikes fear in the hearts of government bureaucrats and citizens alike.
Variable 1.) Volatile Economies
There has been far too little guidance from administrations when it comes to our fluctuating economies. They are in place to uphold the status quo, even if that may be a pipe dream. The governmental bean counters and economists have not provided any rational explanations to calm the populace during this colossal economic catastrophe. We have seen the stock market falter, the housing market bubble burst, erosion of the middle-class and crushing debt which burdens us all. What we need is not a speech or a pep rally. What we really need are clearly defined economic goals, tougher rules on risky investment bankers and enforcement on speculators who have turned their business into a political weapon. Most officials won’t have the clout or will to make the changes necessary to get their houses in order.
Variable 2.) Confidence/Trust
Who will trust the conductor who let his train get off the rails? Most people go about their daily lives clueless about the world around them. They rely on their elected civil servants to run the ship while they enjoy the cruise. If the waves are taking the ship off course or their captain can’t lead them properly there will be problems. Government officials are aware of this and that is why there are constantly polling the populace, it is like mother’s milk for them. If the people do not trust their leaders then who will they trust? They may trust the loyal opposition, who might move the masses in a different direction. I like to call them in this science experiment, ‘free radicals’. Those radicals may lead the people to protest or remove the leadership. In Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen and Syria they spurred the people to action but what happened to that momentum?
Variable 3.) Foreign Policy, War and Domestic Policing