ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS REVISITED: New Information Supports Trump Win and Possible Landslide (Updated)
by Joe Hoft
TheGatewayPundit.com
Oct 24th, 2016
Last week we described the results of a recent analysis of a sample of polls promoted by the mainstream media where Hillary Clinton was reported ahead of Donald Trump in the US Presidential race. (See ACTUARIAL REVIEW: Analysis of Recent Polls Shows Trump Win and Possible Landslide) We provided the following analysis –
Expert Analysis
With all the liberal distortions and dishonesty we decided to have a small team of actuarial and statistics professionals take a look at a couple of the recent polls to get their take on the reliability of these polls. They selected the recent FOX poll from October 14 showing Hillary up by 7 and the WSJ/NBC poll from October 16 showing Hillary with an 11 point lead.
The first observation is that both polls are heavily skewed towards Democrats. At a high level, the FOX poll consists of 43 Dems to 36 Reps to 21 Other while the NBC poll shows 44 Dems to 37 Reps to 19 Other. By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.
Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.
New Information Supports Our Analysis –
The Rest…HERE
