The World Is Hurtling Toward A New Global Monetary System

“It is well known that every boom must one day come to an end. The businessman’s situation, however, depends on knowing exactly when and where the break will first appear. No economic barometer can answer these questions. An economic barometer only furnishes data from which conclusions may be drawn. Since it is still possible for the central bank of issue to delay the start of the catastrophe with its discount policy, the situation depends chiefly on making judgments as to the conduct of these authorities. Obviously, all available data fail at this point. But once public opinion is completely dominated by the view that the crisis is imminent and businessmen act on this basis, then it is already too late to derive business profit from this knowledge. Or even merely to avoid losses. For then the panic breaks out. The crisis has come.”
— Ludwig von Mises

A new recession is inevitable. As already mentioned above, precise predictions regarding the when or how are not possible. At this juncture we nevertheless want to warn about an economic scenario that we believe to be a realistic possibility, namely stagflation.

The term ”stagflation” is derived from the terms stagnation and inflation. It describes an economic situation in which economic stagnation (i.e., stagnating or even contracting economic output) occurs in combination with price inflation. According to the mainstream – i.e., Keynesian – doctrine, stagflation is practically an impossibility, as it is inter alia contradicting the Phillips curve. However, this is no reason for us to dismiss this scenario – quite the contrary.