Ballsy or Crazy? Where Are We On Inflation and Hyperinflation
by Gonzalo Lira
Mon, 7 Feb 2011
For better or worse, in the financial blogosphere, I’m Hyperinflation Boy.
I haven’t actually written that much on the subject: Only five posts from a total of 82 over the last year. I posted the most recent one back in late October—over three months ago—where I made a series of concrete predictions about inflation and hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.
The predictions were either really ballsy or really stupid—even I can’t quite decide. But be that as it may, it’s only fair and right to revisit the subject, recapitulate my arguments, and then check to see if I was on the money, or full of shit.
To begin: Last August 23, I posted an article called How Hyperinflation Will Happen. I guess the piece must’ve struck a nerve, because between my site and a couple of other places where it was reprinted, it got over half a million page views.
My basic thesis was simple: If there is another financial crisis, I argued that capital would not flee to Treasury bonds—instead, it would flow to commodities. And this spike in commodity prices would lead to dollar hyperinflation.