IMF raises spectre of civil wars as global inequalities worsen

Wednesday, February 2, 2011
By Paul Martin

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that “dangerous” imbalances have emerged that threaten to derail global recovery and stoke tensions that may ultimately set off civil wars in deeply unequal countries.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Telegraph.co.uk
01 Feb 2011

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF’s chief, said the economic rebound across the world is built on unstable foundations, with many rich nations still strapped in job slumps while the rising powers of China, India and Brazil already facing the threat of overheating. “It is not the recovery we wanted. It is a recovery beset by tensions and strain, which could even sow the seeds of the next crisis,” he said.
“Global unemployment remains at record highs, with widening income inequality adding to social strains,” he said, citing turmoil in North Africa as a prelude to what may happen as 400m youths join the workforce over the next decade. “We could see rising social and political instability within nations – even war,” he said.

“Global unemployment remains at record highs, with widening income inequality adding to social strains,” he said, citing turmoil in North Africa as a prelude to what may happen as 400m youths join the workforce over the next decade. “We could see rising social and political instability within nations – even war,” he said.

The IMF has published a paper entitled Inequality, Leverage and Crisis arguing that the extreme gap between rich and poor – with echoes of the US in the late 1920s – was an underlying cause of the Great Recession from 2008-2009.

The paper, by the Fund’s modelling unit, warned of “disastrous consequences” for the world economy unless workers regain their “bargaining power” against rentiers. It suggests radical changes to the tax system and debt relief for workers.

Mr Strauss-Kahn said the toxic global imbalances that caused the financial crisis are re-emerging, naming China and Germany as the two arch-sinners that rely on export surpluses to power growth at the expense of the US and other deficit countries.

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