“Revolutions And Wars”: What According To Ray Dalio Comes After “Printing Money

Thursday, May 21, 2020
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2020

Having seemingly conquered the world of finance, Ray Dalio and Howard Marks have been competing who can be a more productive writer in recent weeks, and just two weeks after writing a lengthy thesis on the rise and fall of fiat currencies (which had no less than 43 mentions of gold for obvious reasons), Dalio is back to discussing one of his favorite topics, namely the rise and fall of empires, among which the US and China, over the last 500 years.

The third chapter of his “Changing World Order” series (preceded by Chapter 1 “The Big Picture in a Tiny Nutshell”, and Chapter 2, “The Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity” and its appendix “The Changing Value of Money”), takes a closer look at the rise and fall of the Dutch, British, and American empires and their reserve currencies and, in what will spark howls of outrage from both sides of the discussion, touches on the rise of the Chinese empire, which Dalio views as the next ascendent superpower “to bring us up to the present.”

Dalio’s latest 10,000-word essay (a 50 minute read according to LinkedIn) concludes that empires – just like humans – have a typical life cycle that ultimately come to an end.

And while we will focus on the specific case of the US vs China in a subsequent post, we wanted to highlight the big picture, or what Dalio deems the key events in the “Big Cycle” behind empires’ rise and fall, for one specific reason: we find ourselves in the phase – namely “printing money and credit” – which according to Dalio is immediately preceding the far more troubling phase of “revolutions and wars.”

The Rest…HERE

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