Wall Street analyst who predicted 2008 crash says ‘next 45 days may be most critical period in US financial history’ as Trump pushes states to reopen economy

Monday, April 20, 2020
By Paul Martin

Alan B. Lancz thinks economic recovery will be slow and gradual
Lancz said much will depend on when and how US restarts economic activity
President Trump is eager to get country back up and running again sooner
But governors said doing so risks sharper outbreak of coronavirus
Business leaders want Trump to ramp up testing before re-starting the economy

20 April 2020

Wall Street analysts say the timing and manner in which the US economy is revved up again will have a major impact on the country’s future as leaders on both the federal and local level wrestle with the question of lifting restrictions placed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

‘The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in US financial history,’ money manager Alan B. Lancz told MarketWatch on Sunday.

‘While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other.’

The global health crisis is taking a nasty political turn with tensions worsening between governments locked down to keep the coronavirus at bay and people yearning to restart stalled economies and forestall fears of a depression.

Protesters worrying about their livelihoods and bucking infringements on their freedom have taken to the streets in some places.

A few countries are acting to ease restrictions, but most of the world remains unified in insisting it’s much too early to take more aggressive steps.

In the United States, there is clear evidence of the mounting pressure.

The Trump administration says parts of the nation are ready to begin a gradual return to normalcy.

Yet some state leaders say their response to the pandemic is hindered by a woefully inadequate federal response.

Lancz said that any economic recovery will be slow and gradual – ‘U-shaped’ – rather than quick and short – ‘V-shaped’ – and that is the best-case scenario.

‘Even if we execute properly, the recovery will take time and a best-case scenario is a ‘U’-shaped recovery,’ he said.

‘The much talked about ‘V’-shaped recovery is no longer in the equation because of the unprecedented combination of negatives with this crisis.’

Lancz is an analyst who had a close relationship with Sir John Templeton, the famed investor who in 1999 was dubbed by Money magazine as ‘arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.’

In 2007, Lancz was advising his clients to sell just before the markets tanked due to the housing bust a year later.

In 1987, he managed to emerge unscathed from the Wall Street crash on that year.

President Donald Trump said Sunday that Republicans were ‘close’ to getting a deal with Democrats on a support package for small business.

But the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an increase in new infections.

The death toll in the US climbed past 41,000 with more than 746,000 confirmed infections, while the global case count has passed 2.38 million, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University of national health reports.

The Rest…HERE

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